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2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts May 2005

By Federal Aviation Administration

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Book Id: WPLBN0000692585
Format Type: PDF eBook
File Size: 813.47 KB
Reproduction Date: 2005

Title: 2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts May 2005  
Author: Federal Aviation Administration
Volume:
Language: English
Subject: Aviation, Federal Aviation Administration Command Center (U.S.), Mechanical engineering.
Collections: Space and Aviation eDocuments Collection
Historic
Publication Date:
Publisher: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Citation

APA MLA Chicago

Administration, F. A. (n.d.). 2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts May 2005. Retrieved from http://www.worldlibrary.org/


Excerpt
Excerpt: Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST) licenses and regulates U.S. commercial space launch and reentry activity for the Department of Transportation as authorized by Executive Order 12465 (Commercial Expendable Launch Vehicle Activities) and 49 United States Code Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). AST?s mission is to license and regulate commercial launch and reentry operations to protect public health and safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States. Chapter 701 and the 2004 U.S. Space Transportation Policy also direct the Department of Transportation to encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial launches and reentries.

Table of Contents
Table of Contents Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Characteristics of the Commercial Space Transportation Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 About the COMSTAC 2005 Commercial Geosynchronous Launch Demand Model . . . . . . . . .3 About the FAA NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 2005 Combined Satellite and Launch Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 COMSTAC 2005 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Model . . . . . . . .7 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 COMSTAC Demand Projection vs. Actual Launches Realized . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Factors That Affect Launch Realization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 2004 Space Industry Performance on Launch Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Projecting Actual Launches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 2005 Near-Term Demand Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Satellite Launch Mass Classes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Comparison to International Comprehensive Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Commercial GSO Satellite Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Industry Metrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Future Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Demand Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Launch Vehicle Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Launch Assurance Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Factors That May Affect Future Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Appendix A. Use of the COMSTAC GSO Launch Demand Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Demand Model Defined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Appendix B. Supplemental Questionnaire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Appendix C. Letter from the Associate Administrator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 2005 Commercial GSO Mission Model Update Instructions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 COMSTAC Launch Demand Model Report Feedback Form . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28 Appendix D. Historical Launches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits . . . . . . . .33 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 NGSO Satellite Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 International Science and Other Payloads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 Digital Audio Radio Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 Military . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 Market Demand Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 DigitalGlobe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 ImageSat International . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 InfoTerra GmbH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 Northrop Grumman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 ORBIMAGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41

 

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