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The Walker Papers : The Credibility of America's Extended Nuclear Deterrent; The Case of the Republic of Turkey, Vol. 18

By Colonel William G. Eldridge, USAF


Description
An extended nuclear deterrent for protecting allies may also contribute significantly to nonproliferation efforts—the nuclear umbrella provides allies an assurance so they do not perceive the need to develop nuclear weapons arsenals for themselves. This study explores the impact of US nuclear weapon policy on the current and future effectiveness of extended nuclear deterrence for the Republic of Turkey. It concludes that the credibility of US extended nuclear deterrence for Turkey depends on many factors and not just the quality and quantity of the US nuclear arsenal.

Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION . . . .1 Why Turkey? . . . . .2 The Argument: It’s All about Relationships and Leadership . . . .5 Research Questions and Methods . . . . .5 Outline . . . . .6 Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations . . . . .6 2 WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF AMERICAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS? . . . . .11 Political Uses for US Nuclear Weapons . . . .12 A Special Case of Deterrence: Extended Nuclear Deterrence . . . . .15 Linking Extended Nuclear Deterrence and Nonproliferation . . . . .19 Summary and Cautions . . . . .21 3 ASSESSING US EXTENDED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY . . . . .27 Assessing Credibility Elements for US Extended Deterrence . . . .28 Assessing Nuclear Weapons Tipping Point: Warnings and Indicators . . . . .35 Few Warnings and Indicators of Real Intentions and Capabilities . . . .44 Summary and Conclusions . . . .45 4 IMPROVING US EXTENDED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY . . . . .51 Addressing Credibility Elements . . . .51 Adding Weight: Preventing Tipping . . . .58 Summary and Conclusions . . . .61 5 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS . .65 Conclusions . . . . .65 Policy Implications . . . .68 APPENDIX: US-TURKISH RELATIONS TIMELINE POST-WWII . . . . .71 ABBREVIATIONS . . . . .83 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . .85

 

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