World Library  


Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Emulating Ipcc Ar4 Atmosphere-ocean and Carbon Cycle Models for Projecting Global-mean, Hemispheric and Land/Ocean Temperatures: Magicc 6.0 : Volume 8, Issue 2 (27/03/2008)

By Meinshausen, M.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0003972647
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 120
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Emulating Ipcc Ar4 Atmosphere-ocean and Carbon Cycle Models for Projecting Global-mean, Hemispheric and Land/Ocean Temperatures: Magicc 6.0 : Volume 8, Issue 2 (27/03/2008)  
Author: Meinshausen, M.
Volume: Vol. 8, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Atmospheric, Chemistry
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2008
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Description
Description: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany. Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named CMIP3 and C4MIP, respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, key radiative forcings have not been considered or standardized in the majority of AOGCMs integrations and carbon cycle runs. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emission pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version of MAGICC (6.0) is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCM and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC 6.0 are provided. Previous MAGICC versions and emulations shown in IPCC AR4 (WG1, Fig. 10.26, page 803) yielded, in average, a 10% larger global-mean temperature increase over the 21st century compared to the AOGCMs. The reasons for this difference are discussed. The emulations presented here using MAGICC 6.0 match the mean AOGCM responses to within 2.2% for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill is due to: the comparison on a like-with-like basis using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings, a new calibration procedure, as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The mean diagnosed effective climate sensitivities of the AOGCMs is 2.88°C, about 0.33°C cooler than the reported slab ocean climate sensitivities. Finally, we examine the combined climate system and carbon cycle emulations for the complete range of IPCC SRES emission scenarios and some lower mitigation pathways.

Summary
Emulating IPCC AR4 atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models for projecting global-mean, hemispheric and land/ocean temperatures: MAGICC 6.0

Excerpt
Albrecht, B.: Aerosols, cloud microphysics, and fractional cloudiness, Science, 245, 1227–1230, 1989.; Allen, M.: Do-it-yourself climate prediction, Nature, 401, 642–642, 1999.; Andrews, T. and Forster, P. M.: CO2 forcing induces semi-direct effects with consequences for climate feedback interpretations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04802, 2008.; Ammann, C M., Joos, F., Schimel, D S., Otto-Bliesner, B L., and Tomas, R A.: Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model, PNAS, 104, 3713–3718, 2007.; Boer, G J. and Yu, B.: Climate sensitivity and response, Clim. Dynam., 20, 415–429, 2003.; Brohan, P., Kennedy, J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F B., and Jones, P D.: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548, 2006.; Bryan, K., Manabe, S., and Pacanowski, R C.: Global Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model.2. Oceanic Circulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 5, 30–46, 1975.; Collins, W D., Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M D., Sun, Y., Portmann, R W., Fu, Q., Casanova, S. E B., Dufresne, J L., Fillmore, D W., Forster, P. M D., Galin, V Y., Gohar, L K., Ingram, W J., Kratz, D P., Lefebvre, M P., Li, J., Marquet, P., Oinas, V., Tsushima, Y., Uchiyama, T., and Zhong, W Y.: Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D14317, 10.1029/2005JD006713, 2006.; Cubasch, U., Meehl, G A., Boer, G J., Stouffer, R J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C A., Raper, S., and Yap, K.: Projections of Future Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, edited by Houghton, J., Ding, Y., Griggs, D., Noguer, M., van~der Linden, P., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 892 pp. , 2001.; Daniel, J S., Solomon, S., Portmann, R W., and Garcia, R R.: Stratospheric ozone destruction: The importance of bromine relative to chlorine, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104, 23 871–23 880, 1999.; Ehhalt, D., Prather, M J., Dentener, F., Derwent, R., Dlugokencky, E., Holland, E., Isaksen, I., Katima, J., Kirchhoff, V., Matson, P., Midgley, P., and Wang, M.: Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases, in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, edited by: Houghton, J., Ding, Y., Griggs, D., Noguer, M., van~der Linden, P., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C., p. 892, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001.; Folland, C K., Rayner, N A., Brown, S J., Smith, T M., Shen, S. S P., Parker, D E., Macadam, I., Jones, P D., Jones, R N., Nicholls, N., and Sexton, D. M H.: Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2621–2624, 2001.; Forster, P. M D. and Taylor, K E.: Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from coupled climate model integrations, J. Climate, 19, 6181–6194, 2006.; Forster, P., Ramaswamy, V., Artaxo, P., Berntsen, T., Betts, R., Fahey, D., Haywood, J., Lean, J., Lowe, D., Myhre, G., Nganga, J., Prinn, R., Raga, G., Schulz, M., and Van~Dorland, R.: Chapter 2: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing, in: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG 1, edited by IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.; Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., Bala, G., John, J., Jones, C., Joos, F., Kato, T., Kawamiya, M., Knorr, W., Lindsay, K., Matthews, H., Raddatz, T., Rayner, P., Reick, C., Roeckner, E., Schnitzler, K.-G., Schnur, R., Strassmann, K., Weaver, K., Yoshikawa, C., and Zeng, N.: Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison, J. Climate, 19, 3337–3353, 2006.; Gates, D.: Global biospheric response

 

Click To View

Additional Books


  • Oxidative Capacity of the Mexico City At... (by )
  • Avoiding Hfc Growth is Critical for Keep... (by )
  • Elucidating Multipollutant Exposure Acro... (by )
  • Pressure Broadening in the 2Ν3 Band of M... (by )
  • A New Model of Ragweed Pollen Release Ba... (by )
  • Hydroxyl in the Stratosphere and Mesosph... (by )
  • The Impact of Embedded Valleys on Daytim... (by )
  • Airborne Study of a Multi-layer Aerosol ... (by )
  • Biogenic Isoprene and Implications for O... (by )
  • Observation of Chemical Modification of ... (by )
  • Oh and Ho2 Chemistry in Clean Marine Air... (by )
  • Chemistry and Mineralogy of Clay Mineral... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right

 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from World Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.